Since the start of the year, investors and economists have been focused on this month’s FOMC meeting; specifically, whether or not this would be ‘the one’—the meeting that announced a change in regime, from extreme emergency accommodative low rates to the start of tightening. Due to sporadic data since that time, it became more obvious over time that it was not to be.
The statement language reflected a moderate expansion of economic growth and job gains in recent months, while acknowledging the mixed nature of consumer spending, housing and business capex.
Many look at the ‘dot plot,’ which is a graph attached to the official statement showing the path of rates expected by FOMC members over the next several years—changes in these dots from last meeting are interpreted as a sentiment shift. As it stands, it appears the general expectation is a raising of rates twice by the end of 2015 (probably in the fall, as the July meeting doesn’t feature a press conference). It’s almost hard to believe, but two years hence—by end of 2017—members expect fed funds rates to be at 3% or so (given a range of +/- 0.5% in either direction).
A look at the dashboard: Continue reading →