For the short holiday week, economic data included U.S. GDP growth being downgraded a few tenths, continued improvement in lower PCE inflation, higher home prices, and improved consumer sentiment.
Equities were mixed globally, with developed markets down a bit on net, while emerging markets fell further. Bonds were little changed domestically, while foreign markets saw mixed results. Commodities fell back across a variety of sectors.
U.S. stocks fell on the shortened week, but ended May with solid gains to offset weakness from the prior month. By sector, energy and utilities led the way with gains upward of 2%, while technology fell back by over -2% (as a positive week for some stocks was offset by weakness in Salesforce, Adobe, and Microsoft). Real estate also gained, with Friday’s ‘less bad’ inflation news providing a boost.
On a holiday-shortened week, economic data included an upward revision for 3rd quarter U.S. GDP, gains in personal income and spending, expansionary showings for S&P manufacturing and services, and some improvement in consumer sentiment.
Equities were mixed globally, with slight declines in the U.S. offset by gains internationally, with help from a weaker U.S. dollar. Bonds were little-changed along with minimal change in yields. Commodities gained broadly, mostly in precious metals and especially natural gas, for weather-related reasons.
Economic data included consumer price inflation coming in steady, but still elevated, as did producer price inflation. Industrial production and retail sales came in positively. New and existing home sales rose, but homebuilder sentiment continued to weaken. Jobless claims fell, reflecting further normalization after year-end.
Equities fared positively around the world last week, with small cap and international outgaining U.S. core large cap. Bonds were largely down as interest rates ticked higher as inflation remained sticky. Commodities were mixed, with precious metals continuing to lead due to geopolitical considerations.
U.S. stocks fell back on net for the week, with better results from value and small cap stocks, which outperformed large cap growth. By sector, gains were strongest in consumer staples, industrials (defense stocks), and energy, while communications (Meta mostly) and financials (large banks) pulled back by a few percent. Real estate also gained several percent, despite a rise in interest rates across the yield curve.
Economic data included improvements in ISM services, mixed results for housing starts and the December employment situation report. On the more lackluster side, ISM manufacturing and JOLTs job openings declined.
Equities gained globally last week as the New Year started with optimism and a lack of bad news. Bonds were higher in the U.S. and mixed abroad. Commodities gained in every segment last week, with oil markets in focus after the regime change in Venezuela.
U.S. stocks started the first trading week of the year positively, led by a rally in economically-sensitive small cap names. Economic data was mixed, but perhaps not strong enough to push off several expected Fed interest rate cuts in 2026. By sector, gains of 4-6% in consumer discretionary (Amazon and Home Depot, among others) and materials led for the week, while utilities fell by over a percent. Real estate was up slightly.
The release of the 2026 Tax Rate Schedule is more than a technical update — it’s an important reminder that smart tax planning is rarely about a single year. For investors, retirees, and advisors alike, the real value comes from understanding how evolving tax structures fit into a long-term financial plan.
While headlines often focus on marginal rate changes, the bigger opportunity lies in how tax brackets, income thresholds, and deduction rules influence multi-year decisions. Retirement income strategies, portfolio realization planning, and timing around distributions all become more effective when tax awareness is built into the process early.
For those approaching or already in retirement, 2026 highlights the importance of coordinating income sources — taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free — in a way that preserves flexibility. Decisions around when to recognize income, how to manage capital gains, and how to align charitable or legacy goals can have a meaningful impact over time.
From an investment perspective, tax-aware portfolio construction continues to play a growing role. Asset location, turnover management, and the timing of realizations can help reduce unnecessary drag and support more durable outcomes across market cycles.
At LSA, we view the 2026 tax framework as an opportunity to reinforce disciplined planning — not reactive adjustments. The most effective strategies are built with intention, aligned across investment, tax, and retirement decisions, and revisited regularly as conditions evolve.
As always, thoughtful planning today can create greater clarity and confidence tomorrow.
In a light year-end week, economic data included slight gains in home prices, lower jobless claims, and Federal Reserve minutes that again pointed to diverging points of view on the committee.
Equities were mixed for the week, with U.S. down and international higher. Bonds lost ground as yields ticked higher. Commodities were mixed as energy rebounded with geopolitical ties, and metals were mixed.
U.S. stocks fell back during the lighter-volume holiday week, although the full year 2025 provided the third straight year of double-digit above-average returns. By sector, energy led the way, with 3% gains along with stronger oil prices. Most other sectors were flattish, while consumer discretionary was down by -3% (mostly due to Tesla), and technology and financials down by over a percent each. As the year drew to a close, hopes for AI continued to boost sentiment for growth stocks, while cyclical and value stocks appeared to gain some additional traction upon hopes that fiscal tailwinds will keep the economy expanding at a decent pace into the new year, which is expected to flow through to earnings, at least in early estimates.
Foreign stocks bucked the trend, with gains last week, particularly in emerging markets. In Europe, signs of an improving economy helped sentiment, despite the negative impact of a stronger dollar last week. Emerging markets were again led by strength in South Korea and Taiwan, which tend to be technology-heavy and related to enthusiasm for AI as of late. A key story of 2025 was one of international stock re-emergence, as prospects abroad appeared more favorable towards future growth than they have in some time—explaining the shift in sentiment in their favor.
Bonds fell back last week as interest rates ticked up a bit across the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Governments outperformed investment-grade corporates a bit, although high yield and floating rate bank loans outgained all others with flattish to mildly-positive returns for the week. Foreign bonds were mixed, in keeping with their respective exposures to the stronger dollar, with local EM outperforming, and unhedged developed market debt falling back nearly a percent. As long-term bond returns have historically tended to closely follow their starting yields (as the majority of return is captured from coupon income), shorter-term results can vary a bit from that path, with interest rate volatility and credit spreads being the key drivers. Last year, bonds showed their usefulness with competitive, above-average returns.
Commodities were largely down for the week, with gains in industrial metals, energy flat on net, and a pullback in precious metals, which included one of the more volatile daily moves in some time for gold. Crude oil prices rose 1% last week to $57/barrel, due to some rising tensions with Iran, although the market broadly is seen as oversupplied, which can limit the normal impact of such tensions. As with most asset classes, year-end repositioning and ‘window dressing’ trades likely also played a role in some the wider movements, as allocators added and trimmed various positions to close the calendar year. The past year was one where gold was a big winner, although silver, platinum, and palladium followed suit to help the category. Early Saturday, President Maduro of Venezuela was captured by U.S. forces in a surprise action. The response on oil and gold in particular remains to be determined this week. Some of the oil factors offset each other, with early bullishness about the potential to boost Venezuelan production (mostly helping U.S. energy equities, expected to benefit there), but coupled with already-high global crude supplies tempering the enthusiasm somewhat. Gold and silver rallied with the obvious geopolitical uncertainty behind the U.S. plan to ‘run’ the country, with details scarce so far.
Period ending 1/2/2026
1 Week %
2025
DJIA
-0.66
14.92
S&P 500
-1.00
17.88
NASDAQ
-1.50
21.14
Russell 2000
-0.98
12.81
MSCI-EAFE
0.55
31.22
MSCI-EM
2.33
33.57
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate
-0.21
7.30
U.S. Treasury Yields
3 Mo.
2 Yr.
5 Yr.
10 Yr.
30 Yr.
12/31/2024
4.37
4.25
4.38
4.58
4.78
12/26/2025
3.64
3.46
3.68
4.14
4.81
12/31/2025
3.67
3.47
3.73
4.18
4.84
1/2/2026
3.65
3.47
3.74
4.19
4.86
Sources: LSA Portfolio Analytics, American Association for Individual Investors (AAII), Associated Press, Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank, FactSet, Financial Times, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Asset Management, Kiplinger’s, Marketfield Asset Management, Minyanville, Morgan Stanley, MSCI, Morningstar, Northern Trust, Oppenheimer Funds, Payden & Rygel, PIMCO, Rafferty Capital Markets, LLC, Schroder’s, Standard & Poor’s, The Conference Board, Thomson Reuters, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve, Wells Capital Management, Yahoo!, Zacks Investment Research. Index performance is shown as total return, which includes dividends, with the exception of MSCI-EM, which is quoted as price return/excluding dividends. Performance for the MSCI-EAFE and MSCI-EM indexes is quoted in U.S. Dollar investor terms.
The information above has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but no representation is made as to its completeness, accuracy or timeliness. All information and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Information provided in this report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice; and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security, investment or other product.
Economic data included U.S. GDP for Q3 coming in stronger than expected, while industrial production was flattish, and durable goods and consumer sentiment weakened.
In a seasonally-light trading period, global stocks saw decent gains. Bonds ticked up slightly as yields fell. Commodities rose, led by precious and industrial metals.
U.S. stocks gained a bit during a lighter holiday trading week, with the S&P 500 and Dow reaching more record highs, and large cap stocks outperforming small caps. Every sector ended positively, led by a mixed bag of materials (with strength in metals for the year, boosting mining names), technology, and financials, although communications was not far behind, all with returns approaching or over 2% for the week. Lagging was the more defensive group of consumer staples, which was up just a few basis points. Real estate also gained about 1.5% for the week.
Foreign stocks saw gains as well last week, helped by a drop in the value of the U.S. dollar. Results in the U.K. and emerging markets outgained Europe and Japan. Some of the positive European sentiment appeared due to calls for further interest rate cuts in the U.K., as well as the German central bank forecasting some recovery in 2026, after a long stretch of lackluster, flattish GDP growth. In emerging markets, gains in South Korea and Taiwan (along with strong AI sentiment), were followed by South Africa and Mexico.
Bonds gained slightly as U.S. Treasury yields fell by a few basis points across the curve, with investment-grade and high yield credit outperforming government bonds, as did floating rate bank loans. Foreign bonds ended higher, especially in local terms, as the dollar fell back during the week.
Commodities earned positive returns last week, led by precious metals (platinum and palladium mostly), followed by industrial metals and energy. Crude oil ended up a fraction of a percent to $57/barrel, but remained down over -20% year-to-date as global production remains high. As the U.S. has pursued additional Venezuelan tankers, prices for gold and crude oil had ticked higher early in the week. The former has tended to be reactive to any potential conflict, while the latter is sensitive to Venezuela’s relative size in global oil markets. Natural gas prices remained volatile, due to changing weather forecasts, being up over 5% for the week, but down -15% for the trailing month.
Period ending 12/26/2025
1 Week %
YTD %
DJIA
1.20
16.47
S&P 500
1.41
19.32
NASDAQ
1.23
22.96
Russell 2000
0.21
15.13
MSCI-EAFE
1.20
31.28
MSCI-EM
2.14
32.87
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate
0.21
7.31
U.S. Treasury Yields
3 Mo.
2 Yr.
5 Yr.
10 Yr.
30 Yr.
12/31/2024
4.37
4.25
4.38
4.58
4.78
12/19/2025
3.62
3.48
3.70
4.16
4.82
12/26/2025
3.64
3.46
3.68
4.14
4.81
Sources: LSA Portfolio Analytics, American Association for Individual Investors (AAII), Associated Press, Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank, FactSet, Financial Times, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Asset Management, Kiplinger’s, Marketfield Asset Management, Minyanville, Morgan Stanley, MSCI, Morningstar, Northern Trust, Oppenheimer Funds, Payden & Rygel, PIMCO, Rafferty Capital Markets, LLC, Schroder’s, Standard & Poor’s, The Conference Board, Thomson Reuters, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve, Wells Capital Management, Yahoo!, Zacks Investment Research. Index performance is shown as total return, which includes dividends, with the exception of MSCI-EM, which is quoted as price return/excluding dividends. Performance for the MSCI-EAFE and MSCI-EM indexes is quoted in U.S. Dollar investor terms.The information above has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but no representation is made as to its completeness, accuracy or timeliness. All information and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Information provided in this report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice; and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security, investment or other product.
Economic data last week included improved consumer inflation readings (albeit tainted due to a missing month), a stronger than expected employment situation report (also colored by the shutdown’s lack of data), and gains in retail sales, existing home sales, and consumer sentiment. These were offset by a pullback in manufacturing and services PMI data.
Equities were mixed last week by segment in both the U.S. and internationally. Bonds saw gains, as interest rates fell back along with slower inflation results. Commodities were also mixed, with strength in metals specifically and weakness in energy.
U.S. stocks ended the week mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up slightly, while the Dow Jones large cap index and Russell 2000 small cap index down, all based on composition. By sector, conditions were mixed, with gains in consumer discretionary (Tesla and Starbucks) and technology (Nvidia and Microsoft) leading the way, while energy stocks fell about -3% in keeping with weaker pricing for crude oil and natural gas, along with high supplies. Real estate fell about a percent.
Economic news for the week included another quarter-percent policy interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, a seasonal rise in jobless claims, and stronger-than-expected job openings data.
Equities were mixed globally, with U.S. value and small caps among the strongest. U.S. bonds pulled back for the most part, along with higher interest rates across the yield curve. Commodities were mixed, with stronger metals and weaker energy.
U.S. stocks were mixed last week, with a pullback in the large cap growth segment, offset by gains in more cyclical value and small caps, in line with a less hawkish Fed than was initially expected. By sector, returns were strongest in materials and financials, each up over 2%, while communications and technology lagged, declining by -2% to -3% (mostly via negative contributions from Intel and Nvidia). In the latter, investors showed some nervousness after the announcement that the U.S. administration is easing export curbs on fairly high-end H200 semiconductors to China. Higher technology company valuations also appeared to be a bit of a concern, as AI favorite Oracle reported weaker revenue but also higher expected capex spending than markets anticipated.
The economic data release schedule has begun to normalize, with last week showing gains in personal income and spending, ISM services, industrial production, and consumer sentiment. These offset the weaker ISM manufacturing and ADP employment reports.
Equities fared positively around the world, with Europe and Japan outperforming the U.S. Most bonds lagged as interest rates ticked higher, although there were pockets of gains. Commodities gained in both energy and base metals.
U.S. stocks gained last week, with slower pre-holiday trading, but continued hopes of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this coming Wednesday. By sector, gains were led by technology (Nvidia, but even more so by firms like Salesforce and Adobe) and energy, up by over 1% for the week. Sentiment for artificial intelligence appeared to turn bullish again, in a continued back-and-forth lately between optimism about its productivity potential versus higher valuations for related firms and substantial cash flows spent on infrastructure. Laggards included more defensive sectors utilities, health care, and consumer staples, all of which lost several percent. Real estate also fell back by over -1% along with higher interest rates.
On a short holiday week, economic data included gains in retail sales and durable goods orders, as well as higher producer price readings, decelerating home prices, and continued weak consumer confidence. However, the recent government reopening meant some data released was fairly stale at this point.
Equities rebounded into gains last week, led by the U.S. over international. Bonds also fared well as interest rates fell back amidst Fed member dovishness. Commodities also saw gains, mostly in metals.
U.S. stocks recovered back into positive territory last week, following negative performance the week prior, and wrapping up a more volatile November where the S&P 500 only gained 0.2%, but continued a string of seven straight positive months. Stocks gained sharply early in the week as odds of a December Fed rate cut were further absorbed by markets. These odds have been largely driven by dovish or hawkish comments from various FOMC members, with the voting odds now tilted again toward easing. The maxim of “Don’t Fight the Fed” can be powerful when markets are in the midst of rate cuts.
Economic data began to slowly flow again, following the record-long government shutdown, although scheduling remains delayed for a variety of releases. Last week’s highlights included the employment situation report for September coming in a bit stronger than expected, a rise in existing home sales, and improvement in several PMI surveys. However, consumer sentiment remained weak.
Equities fell back globally due to investor concerns about technology stock valuations, potential economic slowing, and an uncertain Fed rate path. Bonds fared well as interest rates fell back. Commodities fell across the board, especially in energy.
U.S. stocks fell back last week, with markets attempting to digest a variety of news. Earlier in the week, Home Depot provided some cautious comments about the health of the consumer, who appeared to be scaling back some home remodeling purchases in light of economic uncertainty, and reduced guidance. The Nvidia earnings report took over the focus by midweek, with Wed. results surpassing expectations, and management noting that AI chip sales were “off the charts,” although sentiment reversed downward along with some AI skepticism. Some of the early-week choppiness was reversed with a strong early gain on Thurs., with a better-than-expected (albeit old) September nonfarm payroll report, which eventually soured hopes downward when a no-cut December looked like more of a possible reality. Friday’s recovery was helped by New York Fed President Williams support of lower interest rates, which sharply raised market odds of a December cut after all back over 50%.
Economic data remained sparce last week, but as the federal government shutdown ended, coming weeks should see a more normal report flow.
Equities were mixed, with foreign stocks seeing gains, offset by declines in U.S. large cap growth and small cap. Bonds fell back as yields rose across the U.S. Treasury curve. Commodities gained, again led by precious metals, while oil was little-changed.
U.S. stocks were mixed on the week, with large cap indexes up slightly, while the Nasdaq and small cap groups fell back. Early Monday, stocks saw gains as hopes rose over the weekend for a short-term resolution to the government shutdown, which would offer a brief holiday respite. The bill was signed by late Wed., which funds the government through Jan. 30, and included controversial funding for SNAP food assistance programs. However, the longer-term issue of health care subsidies, which is the sticking point between the two parties, has yet to be addressed. Health insurance premiums are expected to soar again in 2026, continuing a pace that ramped up during the pandemic. By Thursday, the lack of available data and depth and length of the government shutdown weighed on investors, fearing additional weakness in the quarter. This was in addition to some diminished excitement for the buoyant 2025 theme of artificial intelligence, as valuations have continued to run on the higher side of consensus expectations for near-term revenues, albeit with still imperfect visibility on AI benefits flowing through to the economy, and impact on labor markets. Overall, we’ve seen a negative reversal for stocks referred to as ‘momentum,’ ‘high beta,’ and ‘low quality,’ which had rallied so sharply since April’s ‘Liberation Day.’ By contrast, stocks with higher-quality fundamentals have tended to lag in relative terms, which is the opposite of their stronger results over longer-term time periods.
By sector, health care and energy led with returns of several percent, followed by consumer staples and materials. Laggards were led by consumer discretionary (Tesla and Amazon) as well as utilities, industrials, and communications. Real estate also fell back as interest rates ticked higher.
Foreign stocks were the leaders for the week, with Europe and Japan up a percent or more, followed by lesser gains for emerging markets. Some industrial and labor releases in Europe and the U.K. came in a bit weaker than expected, which appeared to raise hopes for further central bank rate cuts. There also appeared to be positive sentiment around the U.S. government reopening—perhaps even more so than in the U.S. itself. Emerging market gains were centered in Brazil, India, and South Africa, the latter of which fared especially well as S&P upgraded their sovereign credit rating a bit from BB- to BB, noting a stronger growth and fiscal path.
Bonds fell back by a fraction of a percent in the U.S., along with higher yields along the U.S. Treasury curve; the one positive performer was floating rate bank loans. The rise in rates appeared to be aligned with falling expectations of a December FOMC rate cut, where odds have fallen from a near-certainty a few weeks ago to now around 50/50. Foreign bonds were mixed, with a slightly weaker U.S. dollar helping local emerging market debt outperform other groups.
Commodities saw gains in all groups, led by precious metals up by several percent, followed by energy. Crude oil rose just a fraction of a percent to $60/barrel. Natural gas, one of the most volatile commodity contracts, saw prices spike by nearly 10%, due to a early cold snap across the U.S. and expectations for a cooler winter associated with La Niña, as well as strong exports that have lowered domestic supply levels.
Period ending 11/14/2025
1 Week %
YTD %
DJIA
0.41
12.42
S&P 500
0.12
15.77
NASDAQ
-0.43
19.24
Russell 2000
-1.79
8.32
MSCI-EAFE
1.66
27.73
MSCI-EM
0.31
31.41
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate
-0.24
6.57
U.S. Treasury Yields
3 Mo.
2 Yr.
5 Yr.
10 Yr.
30 Yr.
12/31/2024
4.37
4.25
4.38
4.58
4.78
11/7/2025
3.92
3.55
3.67
4.11
4.70
11/14/2025
3.95
3.62
3.74
4.14
4.74
Sources: LSA Portfolio Analytics, American Association for Individual Investors (AAII), Associated Press, Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank, FactSet, Financial Times, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Asset Management, Kiplinger’s, Marketfield Asset Management, Minyanville, Morgan Stanley, MSCI, Morningstar, Northern Trust, Oppenheimer Funds, Payden & Rygel, PIMCO, Rafferty Capital Markets, LLC, Schroder’s, Standard & Poor’s, The Conference Board, Thomson Reuters, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve, Wells Capital Management, Yahoo!, Zacks Investment Research. Index performance is shown as total return, which includes dividends, with the exception of MSCI-EM, which is quoted as price return/excluding dividends. Performance for the MSCI-EAFE and MSCI-EM indexes is quoted in U.S. Dollar investor terms.
The information above has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but no representation is made as to its completeness, accuracy or timeliness. All information and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Information provided in this report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice; and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security, investment or other product.
LSA Connect 