Weekly Economic Update – 6-03-2024

Economic Update 6-03-2024

  • For the short holiday week, economic data included U.S. GDP growth being downgraded a few tenths, continued improvement in lower PCE inflation, higher home prices, and improved consumer sentiment.
  • Equities were mixed globally, with developed markets down a bit on net, while emerging markets fell further. Bonds were little changed domestically, while foreign markets saw mixed results. Commodities fell back across a variety of sectors.

U.S. stocks fell on the shortened week, but ended May with solid gains to offset weakness from the prior month. By sector, energy and utilities led the way with gains upward of 2%, while technology fell back by over -2% (as a positive week for some stocks was offset by weakness in Salesforce, Adobe, and Microsoft). Real estate also gained, with Friday’s ‘less bad’ inflation news providing a boost.

Continue reading
Posted in Economic News | Comments Off on Weekly Economic Update – 6-03-2024

July 2026 Model Update Schedule

Portfolio Revision | Strengthening Portfolio Construction in the New Capital Cycle

Over the past several weeks, the LSA Investment Policy Committee has completed its scheduled mid-year review across all mutual fund and ETF model portfolios. While these revisions were finalized more than 30 days ago, the committee intentionally delayed implementation as equity markets continued advancing toward new highs while market volatility remained elevated. Rather than introducing portfolio changes during a period of heightened uncertainty, the committee elected to remain patient and allow market conditions to normalize before implementing the previously approved revisions.

With volatility measures now moderating and trading conditions becoming more orderly, the committee believes the current environment provides a more appropriate opportunity to implement these enhancements. These updates are evolutionary rather than tactical in nature and are intended to strengthen long-term portfolio construction while maintaining each model’s stated investment objective.

The committee continues to believe investors have entered what we have referred to as The New Capital Cycle—an investment environment characterized by higher capital costs, elevated fiscal spending, persistent inflation uncertainty, accelerating infrastructure investment, increasing demand for artificial intelligence, and greater competition for capital across the global economy. While these structural forces continue shaping long-term investment opportunities, this revision cycle is focused less on broad asset allocation changes and more on refining portfolio implementation within that evolving backdrop.

Rather than representing a significant shift in investment philosophy, these revisions reflect the committee’s ongoing effort to align portfolios with the realities of the New Capital Cycle through disciplined manager selection, thoughtful implementation, and continuous portfolio improvement. In many cases, the changes are incremental by design, reinforcing our belief that long-term investment success is often achieved through consistent refinement rather than dramatic repositioning.


Model Update Schedule

Posted: July 7, 2026

Targeted Trade Date: July 13, 2026

  • American Funds
  • Bear Market Entry (BME)
  • Cautious Bear Plus (CBP)
  • Private Client
  • Private Client Less Than $100k
  • Private Client Traditional

Posted: July 8, 2026

Targeted Trade Date: July 14, 2026

  • ETF Tactical
  • ETF Models
  • Private Client Blended
  • Private Client Tax Efficient

Posted: July 9, 2026

Targeted Trade Date: July 15, 2026

  • PC Income Strategy
  • Private Client IQ
  • Impact Series
  • Fidelity
  • Vanguard

Additional Updates

  • Variable Annuity (VA) and Variable Universal Life (VUL) model revisions remain under committee review and will be released separately following completion of platform-specific analysis.
  • Certain mutual fund revisions may also result in updates to associated Non-Transaction Fee (NTF) model portfolios.
  • Individual portfolio revision summaries will be posted within the Portfolio News section of each platform homepage.

Investment Rationale

Strengthening Portfolio Construction in the New Capital Cycle

The investment landscape continues to evolve as markets transition away from the liquidity-driven environment that defined much of the post-financial crisis era. Today, investors face a world of structurally higher interest rates, elevated fiscal spending, persistent inflation uncertainty, growing infrastructure investment, accelerating artificial intelligence adoption, and increasing competition for global capital.

Collectively, these forces represent what the LSA Investment Policy Committee has described as The New Capital Cycle—a long-term investment framework that recognizes capital is no longer abundant or inexpensive, and that disciplined allocation decisions are becoming increasingly important.

One of the defining characteristics of the New Capital Cycle has been greater dispersion across sectors, asset classes, investment styles, and portfolio managers. As market leadership narrows and valuation differences widen, thoughtful manager selection and efficient portfolio construction become increasingly important contributors to long-term investment success.

While these structural trends continue to shape our long-term outlook, this revision cycle is focused primarily on refining portfolio implementation rather than making broad strategic allocation changes. Our objective remains straightforward: continuously improving each portfolio by identifying higher-conviction managers, strengthening implementation, improving efficiency, and maintaining disciplined diversification.

Core Themes Driving This Revision

1. Strengthening Manager Quality

As performance dispersion across investment managers continues to widen, manager selection has become an increasingly meaningful contributor to long-term outcomes.

Across multiple model series, the committee has conducted a comprehensive review of existing managers with an emphasis on identifying opportunities to improve:

  • Long-term risk-adjusted performance
  • Portfolio consistency
  • Investment process durability
  • Manager conviction
  • Structural implementation

Several portfolios include targeted manager upgrades where the committee believes stronger long-term opportunities exist while maintaining each portfolio’s overall investment objective.

2. Improving Portfolio Efficiency

Many of this cycle’s revisions focus on improving how portfolios are implemented rather than materially changing their strategic allocations.

The committee has reviewed opportunities to:

  • Reduce unnecessary overlap between investment managers
  • Simplify portfolio construction
  • Improve diversification efficiency
  • Utilize more effective investment vehicles where appropriate
  • Lower investment costs without sacrificing portfolio quality

These enhancements are intended to create cleaner, more efficient portfolios while preserving each model’s long-term philosophy.

3. Refining Fixed Income Positioning

In a world where capital once again carries a meaningful cost, fixed income has reemerged as an important source of income, diversification, and portfolio resilience.

The committee continues evaluating:

  • Credit quality
  • Duration management
  • Income sustainability
  • Active versus passive implementation
  • Relative value opportunities across fixed income sectors

Although yields remain attractive, the committee remains focused on avoiding uncompensated credit and duration risk while maintaining resilient income-producing allocations capable of supporting portfolios throughout varying market environments.

4. Reviewing Hedged Equity and Option-Based Strategies

The committee continues evaluating hedged equity, buffered outcome, and option-based investment strategies to ensure these allocations continue providing meaningful value within diversified portfolios.

Current reviews focus on balancing:

  • Downside protection
  • Participation during rising markets
  • Overall portfolio efficiency
  • Cost relative to realized benefits

Where appropriate, refinements have been made to ensure these strategies continue serving their intended role within the broader portfolio.

5. Maintaining Selective Global Diversification

As infrastructure investment, manufacturing expansion, supply chain realignment, and capital spending become increasingly global, selective international diversification remains an important component of long-term portfolio construction.

The committee continues emphasizing:

  • Higher-quality international managers
  • Improved factor implementation
  • Select emerging market opportunities
  • Structural global growth themes
  • Efficient international diversification

International exposure remains measured and intentional, emphasizing quality and long-term opportunity rather than broad benchmark replication.

6. Ongoing Monitoring of Private Credit

The committee continues monitoring developments within private credit and other less-liquid investment structures. While these revisions contain relatively few direct changes in this area due to the limited exposure currently maintained across LSA portfolios, we remain focused on evaluating:

  • Liquidity characteristics
  • Portfolio transparency
  • Valuation discipline
  • Structural complexity
  • Long-term suitability within diversified portfolios

As this market continues evolving, the committee will remain disciplined in determining where these strategies may—or may not—fit within future portfolio construction.

The New Capital Cycle is not intended to predict short-term market movements. Rather, it serves as the Investment Policy Committee’s long-term framework for evaluating structural investment trends, identifying where capital is likely to earn the highest long-term risk-adjusted returns, and continuously refining portfolios as new opportunities emerge.

This revision cycle represents another step in that ongoing process.

The committee remains committed to:

  • Building resilient portfolios capable of navigating changing market environments.
  • Maintaining exposure to our highest-conviction investment ideas.
  • Continuously evaluating managers and implementation vehicles.
  • Improving portfolio efficiency where opportunities exist.
  • Preserving disciplined diversification and thoughtful risk management across every model series.

While markets will inevitably experience periods of optimism and uncertainty, our investment philosophy remains unchanged. Through disciplined research, active oversight, and continuous refinement, the LSA Investment Policy Committee believes investors are best positioned to navigate the opportunities and challenges presented by the New Capital Cycle.

Posted in Portfolio Updates, Research | Comments Off on July 2026 Model Update Schedule

Weekly Economic Update – 6-29-2026

Economic Update 6-29-2026

Economic data included a revision upward for Q1 U.S. GDP growth, continued gains in personal income and spending, strength in manufacturing and services PMI data, and a reversal upward in consumer sentiment. However, durable goods orders and new home sales fell back.

Equities fell back globally, primarily in the recently-ebullient technology sector. Bonds fared better as yields fell across the yield curve, with hopes for slowing inflation. Commodities pulled back as the U.S.-Iran truce has held, with easier supply conditions for oil and metals.

U.S. stocks were mixed last week, with the value and small cap groups seeing gains, but growth (including the Nasdaq) falling back. By sector, the defensive groups of health care, utilities, and consumer staples led. Technology lagged with a drop of over -5%, as investors again debated the pros and cons of AI infrastructure spending versus revenue, including announced price hikes for several Apple and Microsoft products due to higher chip costs, and speculation concerns overseas. Real estate also increased by 4% with an easing in interest rates during the week.

Continue reading
Posted in Economic News | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Weekly Economic Update – 6-29-2026

Weekly Economic Update – 6-22-2026

Economic Update 6-22-2026

On a holiday-shortened week, economic data included the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady, gains in retail sales and industrial production, while housing starts and homebuilder sentiment deteriorated.

Equities rose globally in response to the U.S.-Iran preliminary peace deal. Bonds were little-changed, along with a flattish yield curve. Commodities fell back with a strong correction in crude oil prices globally, along with the noted peace deal.

U.S. stocks experienced gains for the week as the prior Sunday included a ‘memorandum of understanding’ between the U.S. and Iran, which was seen as a roadmap to end military hostilities. (While it appeared to be threatened by continued action in Lebanon, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah eased some concern by Friday, when domestic markets were closed for Juneteenth.) Most importantly in the near-term, the agreement includes a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, with both blockades being lifted. That news overwhelmed the bit of a negative reaction mid-week when the FOMC statement under new Fed Chair Warsh was seen as a bit more hawkish than anticipated. By sector, technology and industrials saw gains of around 3% each. Laggards included energy, down over -6% along with a pullback in oil prices, as well as defensive health care and consumer staples, as investors took on risk again. Real estate also fell by several percent for the week, with some volatility in interest rates.

Continue reading
Posted in Economic News | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Weekly Economic Update – 6-22-2026

Weekly Economic Update – 6-15-2026

Economic data included rises in consumer and producer prices, which were expected, but still not necessarily celebrated. Though, existing home sales and consumer confidence showed some improvement.

Equities saw positive results around the world, with renewed hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal and progress towards a Strait of Hormuz reopening. Bonds also rose with inflation-related yields coming back down a bit. Commodities weakened on the back of oil prices normalizing downward, due to the same Middle East expectations.

U.S. stocks were mixed by mid-week as U.S.-Iran rhetoric having ramped up again, as well as inflation reports reminding investors about the price impact of continued tensions, but improved with hopes of a completed peace deal, threatened military strikes from the U.S. that were walked back, and continued tech optimism. (A deal being reached over the weekend has pushed stock futures up and oil prices down so far this morning.)

Continue reading
Posted in Economic News | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Weekly Economic Update – 6-15-2026

Weekly Economic Update – 6-8-2026

Economic Update 6-8-2026

Economic data included improvement in manufacturing and services ISM indexes, in addition to strong gains in the May employment situation report, led perhaps some temporary factors.

Equities fell back for the first time in weeks as technology-related sentiment paused. Bonds also lost ground as interest rates rose. Commodities were mixed with gains in energy being offset by weakness elsewhere.

U.S. stocks started the week positively, but ended negatively for the first time in weeks, as markets were less enthused about the overly-strong jobs report, as it confirmed the low likelihood of Federal Reserve cuts anytime soon, at least based on weak labor conditions. Then again, after a strong stock market run as of late, it often doesn’t take much to generate a reason to take a bit of a breather. By sector, gains were led by energy and health care, up over 2% each, while recent leaders technology (Microsoft and Intel), consumer discretionary (Amazon and Tesla), and communications all fell back by -4% to -6%. Semiconductors pulled back especially late in the week, in contrast to their exceptional upward run since the end of March. Real estate also saw gains of over a percent.

Continue reading
Posted in Economic News | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Weekly Economic Update – 6-8-2026

Weekly Economic Update – 6-3-2026

Economic Update 6-3-2026

On a holiday-shortened week, economic data included U.S. GDP growth being downgraded slightly for Q1, stronger durable goods orders, mixed housing metrics, along with continued weak consumer spending.

Equities experienced gains globally for the most part last week, as hopes for Middle East resolution and a reopening of supply lines was cautiously cheered by markets. Bonds fared well also, as inflation fears were reduced, pulling down yields. Commodity prices fell back for energy and agriculture, largely for the same reasons.

U.S. stocks saw gains again last week, as sentiment was helped by the higher chances of a Middle East peace deal, or at least a 60-day ceasefire extension and reopening of Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic. Markets had taken a step back by Thurs., as U.S. airstrikes again appeared to raise the temperature in the region and pushed out hopes for resolution. Sentiment continues to be dominated by the Middle East on a week-to-week, or even day-to-day basis, coinciding with the most recent media reports, coupled with strong demand for AI hardware that has sharply rewarded specific industry groups and world regions. By sector, technology, consumer discretionary, and materials stocks fared positively; on the negative side were energy (as oil prices corrected sharply), as well as defensive consumer staples and utilities. Real estate also fell back slightly, despite a drop in yields.

Continue reading
Posted in Economic News | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Weekly Economic Update – 6-3-2026

Weekly Economic Update – 5-26-2026

Economic data included mixed results for manufacturing and services PMI surveys, coupled with a drop in housing starts and further declines in consumer sentiment.

Equities saw gains around the world, with hopes for progress in the Middle East conflict, as well as eventually lower prices for energy. Bonds fared positively as yields pulled back. Commodities were mostly lower, led by a sharp drop in crude oil prices.

U.S. stocks continued to see gains, with the S&P 500 now up for eight straight weeks, the longest stretch in three years. Cyclical value and small caps outperformed large cap for the week, helped by rising hopes for more fruitful U.S.-Iran negotiations (being in perhaps the “final stages”) as well as continued positive sentiment around AI. By sector, gains were led by more defensive groups utilities and health care (Merck and Lilly), each up over 3%, followed by more tempered gains for consumer discretionary, financials, and technology, while communications services fell back by -2% for the week (Alphabet). Most other segments ended relatively flattish for the week. Real estate also gained several percent with interest rates coming back down. Closely-watched financial results for Nvidia outperformed on a revenue and earnings standpoint, but stock results didn’t reflect the fundamental positivity.

Continue reading
Posted in Economic News | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Weekly Economic Update – 5-26-2026

Weekly Economic Update – 5-18-2026

Economic Update 5-18-2026

Economic data included gains in industrial production and retail sales, while consumer and producer price inflation moved higher along with recent higher oil prices.

Equities ended flattish to lower in the U.S., and negative in international markets, along with little progress in U.S.-Iran and U.S.-China talks. Bonds fell in line with high inflation readings, raising yields. Commodities saw gains, led by another rise higher for crude oil.

U.S. stocks ended generally flat on the week, with growth slightly outperforming value. Sentiment was driven by especially strong consumer and producer price inflation reports, led by Middle East-conflict driven oil price spikes. Despite hopes for conflict resolution, proposals from the Iran the prior weekend were dismissed as “totally unacceptable.” The U.S.-Iran negotiations have come down to U.S. demands for full opening of the Strait of Hormuz and full end to the Iranian nuclear program, while the Iranians are asking for war reparations, full sovereignty over the Strait, and release of seized assets. By Friday, markets fell back over a lack of results from the U.S.-China talks that led to fears of further inflation. At some points, after a strong positive run, markets just need an excuse to take a breather. However, generally positive momentum has been sustained in recent weeks from very strong S&P earnings growth and continued exuberance over the potential benefits of artificial intelligence.

Continue reading
Posted in Economic News | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Weekly Economic Update – 5-18-2026

Weekly Economic Update – 5-11-2026

Economic Update 5-11-2026

Economic data included the April employment situation report coming in more strongly than expected, in addition to improvements in new home sales. On the other hand, ISM services and JOLTS job openings fell back, and consumer sentiment continued to deteriorate to very low levels.

Equities gained globally, along with hopes for easing Middle East tensions and strong technology earnings. Bonds were flattish with minimal change in yields across the curve. Commodities were mixed, with metals up, but energy fell back.

U.S. stocks fared positively, for the sixth straight week, with continued strength in U.S. stock earnings results (especially technology), decent economic data (including jobs), and a continued ceasefire in the Middle East and renewed talks. By Thu., the Court of International Trade decided that the U.S. administration’s blanket 10% tariffs under IEEPA imposed under Sec. 122 two months ago were illegal, although the ruling is subject to appeal. It’s assumed that if the tariffs remain in effect during that process, the administration will have time to replace them with tariffs under Sec. 301 (unfair trade) and Sec. 232 (national security), although that process is also uncertain, as is the timeline for tariff refunds.

Continue reading
Posted in Economic News | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Weekly Economic Update – 5-11-2026

Weekly Economic Update – 5-4-2026

Economic Update 5-04-2026

Economic data for the week included the Federal Reserve keeping policy interest rates on hold, as expected. U.S. GDP for the first quarter grew in line with trend for Q1, in addition to gains in durable goods, and some improvement in consumer sentiment, while manufacturing data was little-changed. Housing data was mixed, with continued deceleration in housing prices.

Equities were positive globally, with the U.S. and Japan outperforming other regions. Bonds fell back as yields rose, along with inflation concerns. Commodities gained again with continued rising oil prices.

U.S. stocks continue to be driven by Middle East developments but more so in recent weeks by U.S. earnings results. Last week, a Tue. slump was caused by OpenAI revenue and user targets not meeting expectations. Aside from the FOMC meeting Wed., it was a big earnings release day for four of the Magnificent 7 stocks. Following that, Alphabet fared best (with the success of TPU chips seen as challenging NVIDIA’s dominance, particularly for certain AI functions like chatbots and agents), while Meta fared poorly (along with higher capex expectations than expected, and substantial bond issuance). There were signs of the continued market dynamic of AI spending versus benefit, which is of course yet to be determined. Middle East developments were few, with the ceasefire extended, but also the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and questions over the 60-day timeline required for the Congressional involvement per the War Powers Act. For April, the S&P 500 gained 10%, its best one-month performance since late 2020, more than offsetting the -5% decline in March.

Continue reading
Posted in Economic News | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Weekly Economic Update – 5-4-2026

Weekly Economic Update – 4-27-2026

Economic Update 4-27-2026

Economic data included gains in retail sales, as well as improvements in S&P Global PMI data for manufacturing and services. These offset further declines in consumer confidence.

Equities were mixed in the U.S. and emerging markets last week, as international developed market stocks fell back. Bonds were down globally as yields and inflation fears rose. Commodities saw gains led by another spike in crude oil prices.

U.S. stocks bounced around a bit last week, as concerns remained about the durability of the ease in Middle East tensions. By Wednesday morning, the U.S. administration extending the U.S.-Iran ceasefire “indefinitely” caused the positive boost in sentiment to continue in a muted fashion, although investors were also fixated on corporate earnings. Sector results were mixed, with gains of over 4^ in technology and energy, followed by consumer staples, while declines were most pronounced in health care, financials, and communications. Real estate also pulled back a few percent, along with a rise in yields.

Earnings season for Q1 is moving along, with nearly 30% of S&P firms having reported actual results, with nearly 85% reporting a positive earnings surprise and over 80% a positive revenue surprise. The blended earnings growth rate for the quarter remains at a robust 15.1%, over double the long-term average pace, with a profit margin of 13.4%, which is the highest in five years. Investor focus remains tied to AI demand, AI infrastructure spending, and consumer spending generally in light of higher costs caused by oil.

Continue reading
Posted in Economic News | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Weekly Economic Update – 4-27-2026

Weekly Economic Update – 4-20-2026

Economic Update 4-20-2026

Economic data included producer prices rising at a faster clip than expected, and declines in industrial production and existing home sales.

Equities earned positive returns globally as the easing of Middle East tensions elevated investor moods. Bonds fared well also as inflation expectations fell. Commodities were mixed, with metals higher, but energy falling back sharply with Iran tensions down.

U.S. stocks experienced gains for the third straight week. Conditions looked uncertain at the start of the week, with the U.S. announcement of their own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and potential destruction of Iranian ships; however, signs of the Iran wanting to negotiate pushed stocks higher again. Despite the apparent escalation on the surface, the blockade itself has been seen by some observers as a shift away from a military action towards economic-centered counterattacks. The positivity continued through the week, with a 10-day ceasefire between Israel-Lebanon announced by early Fri., as well as the Strait of Hormuz being declared “completely open” to commercial traffic. On the subtler side, the investor return to risk-taking was coupled with a reduction in hedging activity and ‘short covering’ in institutional markets, which was also significant, as it drove cash flows at the margin. While March had been a largely negative month for equities, with the S&P 500 down -5%, yet April month-to-date returns are up 9%.

Continue reading
Posted in Economic News | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Weekly Economic Update – 4-20-2026