Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 10-19-2015

  • Economic data for the week was generally lackluster, seen in retail sales and several manufacturing surveys.  Inflation came in quite tempered, on par with recent months and expectations.
  • Equity markets gained on interpretations of weak data meaning the Fed may keep raising interest rates at bay; bonds performed well with rates falling.  Crude oil declined on the week with continued uncertainty about demand/supply dynamics looking into next year.

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LSA Portfolio Revisions

LSA will be making model portfolio revisions today.  Below is a list of all round one models that are scheduled to trade October 16, 2015.  All revisions for these models been posted online.

*As a reminder, the Revision Explanation Presentation/Video is posed in the “News & Announcements,” section.

** TRADE DATE SCHEDULED FOR – October 16, 2015! **

Round One LSA Revised Models:

  1. Private Client (Inclusive of NTF Models), Schwab NTF, Fidelity NTF, TDA NTF
  2. Private Client Traditional (Inclusive of NTF Models), Schwab NTF, Fidelity NTF, TDA NTF
  3. Private Client Tax Efficient (Inclusive of NTF Models)
  4. Private Client L100K (Inclusive of NTF Models)
  5. Private Client Blended (Inclusive of NTF Models)
  6. Bear Market Entry, Cautious Bear Plus, Income Strategy
  7. ETF (Inclusive of NTF Models)
  8. ETF Tactical
  9. Direct Fund Company Models (American Funds, Vanguard)

 

Round Two LSA Revised Models: this will include all VA/VUL model portfolios and will continue to post over the coming days. Trade date will be targeted for October 26th.

 

If you have any questions please feel free to contact us at support@LSAportfolios.com or call us at 866-581-5724.

 

 

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 10-12-2015

  • In a lighter week for economic data, the ISM non-manufacturing survey release disappointed while remaining quite positive, the trade balance deteriorated due to a stronger dollar and the FOMC minutes were a bit more benign than expected although didn’t clarify any interest rate policy uncertainty.
  • Equity markets gained in the U.S., upon stronger sentiment from higher energy prices, while bonds sold off a bit as interest rates inched higher.  Commodities naturally had a strong week due to the oil impact, a rare event recently. Continue reading
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LSA Portfolio Revisions Announcement

LSA Portfolio Revisions!

LSA will be making model portfolio revisions over the next two weeks.  These revisions will be spilt up in two rounds.  Below is a list of all round one models that are scheduled to trade October 16, 2015.  All revisions for these models will be posted today and will be ready to view by the end of the day on October 8th.

*As a reminder, the Revision Explanation Presentation/Video will be posted on Friday October 9th.  We will be sending out another email confirming that all content has posted.

** TRADE DATE SCHEDULED FOR – October 16, 2015! ** 

Round One LSA Revised Models:

  1. Private Client (Inclusive of NTF Models), Schwab NTF, Fidelity NTF, TDA NTF
  2. Private Client Traditional (Inclusive of NTF Models), Schwab NTF, Fidelity NTF, TDA NTF
  3.  Private Client Tax Efficient (Inclusive of NTF Models)
  4. Private Client L100K (Inclusive of NTF Models)
  5. Private Client Blended (Inclusive of NTF Models)
  6. Bear Market Entry, Cautious Bear Plus, Income Strategy
  7. ETF (Inclusive of NTF Models)
  8. ETF Tactical
  9.  Direct Fund Company Models (American Funds, Fidelity, Vanguard, DFA, SRI)

 

 

Round Two LSA Revised Models: this will include all VA/VUL model portfolios and will begin to post Monday October 12th.  Trade date will be targeted for October 24th.

 

If you have any questions please feel free to contact us at support@LSAportfolios.com or call us at 866-581-5724.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 10-5-2015

  • Economic data last week was lackluster, but not too far from expectations, with ISM manufacturing staying in just in expansionary territory, while the employment situation report disappointed on the downside.
  • U.S. markets gained on the week, with sentiment improving on net despite continued global growth worries; emerging markets performed especially well.  Interestingly, bond prices also experienced a positive week as interest rates fell.

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Chart of the Week: The Price of Being Out of the Market

Price of being out of market

As the media bombards your clients with countless articles referencing an impending bear market (roughly 1,400 by Bloomberg in the month of August alone), your role as a financial advisor has become just as crucial as it is difficult. Of all the roles you fill as a financial advisor, the benefit of keeping your clients’ emotions in check and their money off the sideline cannot be understated. This chart shows that, during the 14 year period of 12/31/1999-12/31/2015, if your client were to be sidelined from the market on just 10 of the best days of the S&P 500, their annualized return would be 472 bps lower (and in negative territory) than if they had stayed fully invested for the entire period. In such a turbulent quarter, it is of upmost importance to keep your client educated on the longer term benefits of a disciplined investment approach and well-diversified portfolio. See more tools from T. Rowe Price to help you properly inform your clients what they need to focus on during market volatility by clicking here (no log-in needed).

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 9-28-2015

Economic data for the week was highlighted by weaker durable goods orders and mixed but a bit better data on the housing side, while 2nd quarter GDP was revised higher.

Equity markets experienced a negative week globally, which continues the fall seasonal pattern of higher volatility.  Bonds were mixed with interest rates rising slightly on the week.

There were several unique issues last week, excluding the typical recent excuse for volatility—continued slowness in the Chinese economy, particularly from manufacturing activity falling to a multi-year low.  From a sector standpoint, healthcare lost the most ground (see comments from Hillary Clinton about drug pricing below) with one of the worst weeks for the segment in some time, while utilities, staples and financials gained some positive ground. Continue reading

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 9-21-2015

  • The week was highlighted by the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates at zero for yet another meeting, despite growing expectations for an increase.  Retail sales results were stronger, as did jobless claims, but several regional manufacturing surveys came in weak.  CPI was little changed, as expected, and remained at low levels.
  • Large-cap U.S. equities were largely negative on the week, while small cap and foreign equities turned in positive results.  Investment-grade bonds offered slight positive returns as rates declined upon no action from the Federal Reserve.

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Fed Note

Fed Note 

Well, this FOMC meeting was the big one, or at least had the potential to be.  But, again, investors hoping for higher rates were disappointed—the Fed kept rates as they are for now.  In recent weeks, the probability of the Fed raising rates for the first time in a decade became less and less likely as the global (particularly Chinese) economic situation deteriorated, which was reflected in U.S. financial market volatility.  While futures markets predicted this outcome, economists were split on the probability of something happening today. Continue reading

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 9-14-2015

  • In a relatively light week for economic data, producer prices came in flattish, on par with tempered inflation trends, while some sentiment data weakened a bit, as expected due to market volatility recently.  Labor measures, including JOLTs and jobless claims, continued to show improvement to the point of looking ‘normal.’
  • Volatility continued to be the new normal for global equity markets, with it ending positively for equity markets.  Bonds lost ground in a risk-on week and higher interest rates.

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Chart of the Week: Active Management vs Passive Management during Market Corrections

Hartford Funds recently released an analysis comparing the average performance of active management versus that of passive management during each period the market corrected in the past 30 years.1 Hartford removed any index or enhanced index funds from the Morningstar Large Blend category to represent its average active strategy and used the S&P 500 Tracking category to represent its passive. They found that there were 20 market corrections in the past 30 years. Of those 20 periods, active management outperformed passive 16 times, with an average excess return of 1.10%.

Passive management may have looked superior the past few years, but this was during a distorted market environment that favored passive strategies.  With the end of QE, the highly anticipated lift off of the zero interest rate policy, and the first market correction in the past 4 years, we are beginning to see the transition from this particular market cycle into a more normalized environment. This would shift favor to active money managers that are skillful in capturing alpha and protecting on the downside, whose strategies have proven to outperform through multiple market cycles.

 

1Source

 

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 9-08-2015

  • Economic data was mixed with weakness seen in manufacturing, while services remained strong, albeit weaker than last month.  The monthly employment report disappointed relative to expectations, although it contained some positive revisions.
  • Equity markets continued to experience heightened volatility, losing ground on net for the week.  Bonds benefitted from the risk-off environment, gaining as interest rates fell back.  Oil prices ticked upward on the week, despite volatility there as well.

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