Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 2-05-2018

  • Economic news for the week was highlighted by the FOMC keeping interest rates unchanged in their first meeting of the year, Manufacturing surveys showed a bit of a drop while remaining high, housing data showed gains, and the employment situation report came in stronger than expected.
  • Global equity markets declined sharply on the week, led by weakness in the U.S. coupled with higher interest rates.  These same rates increases also punished bond markets, particularly on the long-term part of the yield curve.  Commodities also came in lower, due to a pareback in energy prices for the week.

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Fed Note

The first FOMC meeting of the year was uneventful, as expected, with no action on the interest rate policy front, with short-term rates kept to a targeted range of 1.25-1.50%.  There were no dissents.  As there was also no planned press conference, formal comments and a Q&A session from new Chair Powell will have to wait until March.

The official statement noted several items, including that the labor market has continued to strengthen, and economic activity has been rising at a solid rate.  This is in addition to improvements in employment, household and business spending.  However, inflation was noted as continuing to run at a sub-target pace, but some progress has been seen recently.  This fairly optimistic assessment was largely taken as a sign of another interest rate hike in March, which would be in keeping with their recent pace.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 1-30-2018

  • Economic data for the week was highlighted by a weaker-than-expected result for the prior quarter’s GDP and prior-month housing sales, but stronger showings in durable goods, jobless claims and the index of leading economic indicators.
  • Equity markets continued to grind higher in both the U.S. and abroad, with the latter helped by a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar, as the result of off-the-cuff comments from the administration.  Bonds were flattish with little changes in interest rates, while commodities gained ground.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 1-23-2018

  • Economic data for the week was mixed, with decent results reported in industrial production, while regional manufacturing results, housing starts and consumer sentiment came in weaker.  The Fed’s anecdotal Beige Book showed general strength across most segments of the U.S. economy.
  • Equity markets in the U.S. rallied for yet another week, with continued strong economic data, despite a more dramatic political backdrop.  Stronger global growth and a weaker dollar propelled foreign stocks to another week of leadership.  Bonds lost ground as interest rates rose for a variety of reasons, while commodities declined along with a pareback in crude oil prices.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 1-16-2018

  • Economic data for the week was led by growth in retail sales, tempered inflation results and mixed but continued strong labor market metrics.
  • Equity markets gained ground again, with U.S. markets leading the way upon strong sentiment.  Foreign markets also gained, with a help from a weaker dollar.  Domestic bonds generally lost ground with interest rates ticking higher.  Commodities gained across the board, but particularly due to higher crude and natural gas prices last week.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 1-08-2018

  • Economic data for the first week of the new year showed strength in manufacturing, a weaker result for services ISM, and a mixed result in employment, with strong jobless claims and ADP employment numbers, while the government employment report disappointed with challenging winter weather.
  • Equity markets started the year with significant gains globally, with optimism for the new year running high in both the U.S. and abroad.  Bonds faced a more challenging week, as interest rates increased along with these expectations.  Commodities rose to a more tempered degree, as crude oil again gained in price.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 1-02-2018

  • With an extremely light holiday calendar for economic data, highlights included stronger housing and regional purchasing data and weaker consumer confidence and jobless claims.
  • U.S. stock markets fell during the last week of the year, while international equities gained with the help of a weaker dollar.  Bonds fared well as interest rates declined for the week, and foreign bond markets also benefited from the dollar’s move.  Commodities across the board experienced a positive week.

U.S. stocks experienced a low-volatility last week of the year, resulting in a net decline in prices.  From a sector standpoint, utilities and industrials gained the most ground, while tech stocks pulled back by a percent, affected a bit by demand concerns for Apple’s new iPhone.

The dollar fell back by a percent, which acted as a strong tailwind for both developed and emerging market equities.  U.K. stocks were especially strong with positive online shopping results, while European and Japanese stocks actually lost ground for the week in local terms; however, the currency translation on the latter two regions turned the negative into a positive result for U.S. investors.  Emerging market outperformance was highlighted by gains in non-China Asian regions, such as Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia, although most nations benefitted from the weaker dollar to some degree and stronger commodity prices.  Chinese growth looks to be slowing again as we enter the new year, which always seems to result in a mixed bag for markets.  On one hand, as the global growth engine of recent years, a slowing economy equates to likely slower world GDP growth; at the same time, a more tempered pace of growth has spurred the government to work on reducing internal leverage and high debt levels, perhaps lowering the chances of a crisis. Continue reading

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 12-27-2017

Economic releases last week consisted of very strong results in housing and manufacturing, as well as the broad measure of leading economic indicators, mixed results from personal income/spending and durable goods orders and slightly worse sentiment and jobless claims.

U.S. equities gained with tax reform efforts wrapping up, which boosted pre-Holiday sentiment.  Foreign equities outperformed with help from a weaker dollar.  Bonds generally lost ground as interest rates gained across the curve.  Commodities also rose slightly, along with the price of crude oil.

U.S. stocks gained on the week as tax reform made its final strides through the legislative process, slated to take effect Jan. 1, although most volume occurred earlier in the week.  From a sector standpoint, energy experienced sharp gains in keeping with higher prices for crude oil.  Utilities lagged with negative returns on the week, with higher interest rates and perhaps various aspects of the new tax bill which do not favor the utilities sector.  Interestingly, a sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin over the past week, nearing a third of its value, did not appear to carry over to other financial markets. Continue reading

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 12-18-2017

  • Economic activity for the week centered on the Federal Reserve, which raised short-term interest rates another quarter-percent, as expected.  Retail sales gained more sharply than expected, while industrial results were mixed and inflation came in weaker than consensus though several measures.  Labor force gains remain robust.
  • U.S. equities gain for the week, with positive sentiment related to tax reform.  Foreign markets were mixed on net, falling behind U.S. stocks for the week with little change in the dollar.  Bonds on net made slight gains, with the treasury yield curve flattening further.  Commodities were generally little changed with crude oil experiencing a quieter week.

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Fed Note

Fed Note:

The December FOMC meeting was considered one in the ‘important’ category, in that additional materials were released, a press conference was scheduled afterward, as well as it being the last of the year.  Based on economic and inflation data released over the past few weeks, odds of a rate hike had moved to nearly 99%, and the Fed didn’t disappoint.  For the third time this year, the rate on fed funds were raised by +0.25% to a new range of 1.25-1.50%.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 12-12-2017

  • Economic releases were mixed on the week, with weaker results in non-manufacturing ISM, factory orders and lower sentiment.  On the other hand, labor markets continued to perform, with jobless claims running at cyclical low levels and the monthly employment situation report coming in stronger than expected.
  • U.S. stocks gained for the week, as did developed foreign markets despite the tempering influence of a stronger dollar.  Bonds were generally flat, while commodities also fell due to the dollar’s strength coupled with other specific factors.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 12-04-2017

  • Economic data released last week included an upward revision in 3rdquarter GDP, a dip in the ISM manufacturing index, a recovery in various housing metrics and higher levels of consumer confidence.
  • U.S. equity markets rose sharply during the week, outperforming foreign stocks, which lost ground.  Bonds were little changed on net with interest rates mixed across the yield curve.  Commodity prices fell, with declines in several key segments, including oil and metals.

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