Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 6-06-2016

  • Economic data for the short week was mixed, with slightly stronger manufacturing data relative to previous months, while non-manufacturing/services weakened.  Housing prices continued in an upward trajectory.  However, the big government employment report on Friday was a disappointment, and could be enough to keep the Fed on hold for another month at least.
  • U.S. and developed foreign stocks were little changed on the week, with the mixed bag of economic data.  Bond prices moved higher with a drop in interest rates and Fed action becoming less likely in June.  Energy prices were little changed on the week, although other commodities gained.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 5-31-2016

  • Economic data for the week was dominated by strong U.S. housing numbers, while durable goods and sentiment lagged.  Comments from FOMC members alluded to a stronger chance of an interest rate hike in coming months.
  • Equity markets around the world gained on the week, with continued strength in oil prices and an improvement in economic and geopolitical sentiment somewhat.  With interest rates flattish, bond prices didn’t experience much movement during the week.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 5-23-2016

  • Economic data on the manufacturing side was lackluster, with indexes contracting again.  Inflation was again generally contained, and housing came in a bit better than expected, while the FOMC minutes from April surprised somewhat—being more biased towards tightening than some observers first thought.
  • Equity markets in the U.S. and developed foreign markets moved slightly higher on the week generally as investors absorbed the more hawkish set of Fed minutes, while emerging markets lost ground.  Bonds declined as interest rates ticked up along the yield curve.  Commodities gained with a continued recovery in oil prices.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 5-16-2016

  • In a slow week for economic data, retail sales gained more than expected, while consumer sentiment also came in showing strength.  Jobless claims were the sole weak spot, but this may have been the result of one-off seasonal adjustments.
  • Stock markets fell across the globe along with poor retail earnings, while bonds gained with interest rates ticking downward.  Due to a variety of cross-currents, crude oil prices rose again, into the upper $40’s/barrel.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 5-09-2016

  • Economic data for the week was highlighted by continued mixed results in manufacturing, but stronger non-manufacturing/services data.  The employment situation report for April was a bit of a disappointment, mostly due to the doubt it casts on Fed action in the near future.
  • Equity markets declined on the week, but domestic high-quality bonds performed positively as interest rates declined.  On the other hand, U.S. high yield and emerging market bonds weakened in line with lower oil prices.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 5-02-2016

  • As expected, the FOMC didn’t take any interest rate policy moves following their April meeting, while 1stquarter GDP came in a bit lower than expected, manufacturing data continued to show some ongoing weakness, while housing reports were decent.
  • Stocks lost ground on the week globally, not helped by the Bank of Japan’s lack of action on the accommodation front.  With interest rates falling, bonds gained, led by credit, which was helped by continued recovery strength in energy.

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Fed Note

Fed Note:

No policy action was taken at today’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which was the unanimously expected result.  The FOMC statement acknowledged stronger labor activity and housing, while also the negatives of slowing general economic growth as well as continued weak business capex spending and exports.  However, the committee expects a longer-term shift back to growth at a ‘moderate’ pace.  The vote was 9-1, with KC Fed President Esther George dissenting in favor of a quarter-point increase in rates (as she did in March as well).  This was a ‘minor’ meeting with no press conference scheduled, so there is less to comment on than usual.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 4-25-2016

  • Economic data for the week was focused on several housing stats, including higher home prices, existing home sales but lower starts and building permits.  Jobless claims fell to multi-decade lows, which was good news for the labor market.
  • Stocks rose on the week with decent earnings reports and higher energy prices. Bonds lagged due to higher interest rates.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 4-18-2016

  • Economic data for the week was plentiful but mixed, with neutral results from retail sales and inflation, weaker industrial production and consumer sentiment but strength in some manufacturing results.
  • Equity markets gained ground with higher oil prices and positive earnings results.  Government bonds lost some ground on higher interest rates, but tighter spreads benefitted corporate bonds. Commodities also rallied, led by oil and agriculture.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 4-11-2016

  • In a relatively quiet week for economic data, ISM services showed further improvement into expansionary territory, and some jobs data offered a decent showing, with lower claims and stronger hiring and quits activity in the governments JOLTs report.
  • Equity prices generally fell globally with sentiment for economic growth declining a bit.  Bonds rallied upon lower interest rates.  Commodities gained, with oil leading the charge as a result of lower inventories.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 4-04-2016

  • Economic data for the week was highlighted by a turnaround in manufacturing, decent housing reports and a generally positive but uneventful employment situation report.
  • Equity markets gained on the week with decent economic data, while bonds also performed well along with a drop in interest rates.  Commodities fell on the week as oil supply concerns again rose to the forefront.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 3-28-2016

  • A slow week for economic releases included a slowing in durable goods orders, mixed housing data, and GDP for the 4thquarter of last year that was revised upward slightly from an earlier estimate.
  • Equity markets declined globally as a result of the Belgian terrorist attacks and lower energy prices, while bonds were little changed due to minimal changes in yields during the week.  Oil prices fell a few dollars from the prior week.

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