LSA Revisions June 2017

Private Client Revisions – (Inclusive of the NTF Models)

LSA will be making revisions to the following portfolios:

  • Bear Market Entry
  • Bear Market Entry TDA NTF
  • Cautious Bear Plus
  • Cautious Bear Plus Schwab NTF
  • Cautious Bear Plus TDA NTF
  • Private Client
  • Private Client Fidelity NTF
  • Private Client Schwab NTF
  • Private Client TDA NTF

These are the only models that we are making changes to at this time.  The revision allocation and notes have already been posted to the website and we will be posting the revision video today.  LSA is targeting June 12th to implement these changes.

*As a reminder, the Revision Explanation Presentation/Video is posted in the “News & Announcements,” section on the LSA Beta home page. Continue reading

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 6-05-2017

  • Economic data for the week was generally flat to a bit weaker, with decent results from manufacturing surveys, continued mixed housing data, and a poorer-than-expected May employment situation report.
  • Equity markets gained both in the U.S. and overseas, as did bonds, with a decline in interest rates and falling dollar, which benefitted foreign securities.  Commodities declined along with crude oil due to high inventories and an increase in anticipated drilling activity.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 5-30-2017

  • Economic data last week was led by a weaker durable goods report, an upward revision to first quarter GDP, weakness in housing, and generally neutral results from sentiment and jobless claims.
  • Equity markets gained for the week, with U.S. stocks outperforming developed foreign markets, but underperformed emerging markets with a recovery in Brazil.  Bonds were generally flat with little change in yields in the U.S., while emerging market bonds outperformed.  Commodities lost ground following declines in oil prices.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 5-22-2017

  • Economic data for the week was highlighted by some mixed regional manufacturing results, stronger industrial production, a drop-off in housing starts, and jobless claims that continue to run at very low historical levels.
  • U.S. stocks declined during the week along with more controversy surrounding the president, while foreign equities gained due to the drop in the value of the dollar.  Bonds fared well with investors seeking out safe haven assets, resulting in lower interest rates.  Real estate also gained, as did commodities, with oil prices rising on the heels of extended OPEC supply cuts.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 5-15-2017

  • Economic data for the week was highlighted by a disappointing gain in retail sales, while consumer sentiment improved, jobless claims provided their best showing in almost 30 years, while inflation numbers were mixed but generally showed tempered gains.
  • U.S. equity markets lost ground, while foreign markets experienced a positive week.  Bonds were up slightly with rates ticking downward, and commodity indexes rose due to an increase in energy prices.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 5-8-2017

  • Economic data for the week was highlighted by a decline in but still-strong ISM manufacturing numbers, continued strength in ISM non-manufacturing, and continued strength in labor metrics, including the April employment situation report.  The FOMC meeting resulted in no policy action, which was as expected, although chances for a June rate increase appear to have again risen.
  • Equity markets rose over the week, with foreign stocks in Europe especially strong with sentiment improving prior to the French election.  Bonds pulled back a bit in the U.S., as rates rose, while foreign bonds benefitted a bit from a weaker dollar.  Commodities generally lost ground due to continued weakness in crude oil prices.

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Fed Note

Fed Note:

The May Fed meeting was a ‘minor’ one, with no press conference or economic projections, so was not considered to be one with a high probability of action.  This ended up being the case, with the Fed Funds rate being maintained at 0.75-1.00%, per the bump higher in March.  The formal statement acknowledged that the labor market has continued to strengthen, despite a slowing in economic activity.

With conditions holding steady, many economists are seeing the odds of another rate hike in June at better than 50%, with those chances remaining data dependent, as usual.  Aside from growth and labor market information received between now and then, the fiscal situation in Washington remains a wildcard, with any success in pro-business legislation likely providing a boost to broader economic growth and risk asset markets perhaps, while inaction could keep pushing out the timeframes for these catalysts.  Progress has been slower than expected, which could partially be due to the personalities involved and partially due to Washington business as usual.

The dashboard of Fed items is little changed from March:

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 5-01-2017

  • Economic data for the week were highlighted by a weaker-than-expected result for 1stquarter GDP, and disappointing sentiment data, while housing ended mixed and jobless claims remained low.
  • Stock markets rose globally, with help from results from the French presidential election that favored a conventional, pro-euro candidate.  Bonds declined a bit on the U.S. investment-side, but high yield and foreign debt fared well.  Commodities were mixed, as oil prices were little changed during the week.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 4-24-2017

  • Economic data for the week showed slower but still-strong results in regional manufacturing and production, while housing metrics were mixed.
  • Stock markets gained globally, led by the U.S. and Japan, while other markets generally came in flatter.  Bond returns were flattest of all, with minimal changes in interest rates for the week.  Commodities lost ground along with oil prices declining due to higher supplies.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 4-17-2017

  • Economic data for the week consisted of unsurprisingly weaker retail sales, lower inflation readings via the consumer price index and producer price index, as well as continued strength in labor markets.
  • Equity markets lost ground in the U.S. for the most part, while developed and emerging foreign markets generally were flattish.  Bonds fared well in that anti-risk environment, as did real estate, while commodity indexes also gained with help from higher crude oil and gold prices.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 4-10-2017

  • Economic reports for the week came in mixed, with slightly weaker ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing data, although both remained strongly expansionary.  While the ADP employment report was quite strong, the government nonfarm payrolls report was far less so, while the unemployment rate declined.
  • Equity markets were mixed with flat to lower results in the U.S., with large-caps holding up much better than small, and better results from emerging markets than developed.  Bonds gained a bit with interest rates ticking downward a bit, but foreign assets of all kinds held back by a stronger dollar.  Commodities edged upward along with higher prices for crude oil.

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Weekly Economic Update

Economic Update 4-04-2017

  • Economic data for the week was highlighted by stronger manufacturing and housing results, an improvement in consumer confidence to a multi-decade high, while Q4 GDP was revised slightly higher than in earlier releases.
  • Equity markets in the U.S. gained, developed markets ended flattish on net and emerging markets lost ground.  The majority of bond indexes were flattish, with very little interest rate movement, while commodity indexes gained generally with a bounce higher in crude oil prices.

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