Economic Update 10-29-2018
Economic Update 10-22-2018
Economic Update 10-15-2018
Market Pullbacks
It’s easy to get caught up in complacency when conditions are good, the sun is shining and the market is rising without interruption. But, as we know intuitively (but often still forget), such parabolic conditions aren’t realistic or even desirable. In theory, markets that moved upward without any risk of an occasional downward slide would eventually become prohibitively expensive as discounts would be wrung out of the system and create a market situation far more fragile than one with a healthy balance that reacts, digests/disregards and interprets news as it occurs. Good or bad, this is the essence of how markets have operated over the course of the last few centuries. Continue reading
Economic Update 10-08-2018
Economic Update 10-01-2018
Fed Note:
The FOMC decided to raise short-term interest rates by another quarter-percent—the third hike this year—bringing the fed funds target range to 2.00-2.25%. This was largely as expected, with formal probabilities of such a move being pegged at around 95% based on futures markets. There were no dissents.
The official statement noted a continued strengthening in economic and labor market activity, in addition to growth both household spending and business fixed investment. Inflation was described as ‘near target’. However, the term ‘accommodative’ was removed, in an acknowledgment of the evolution in policy. The probability of a fourth hike in December by another quarter percent stands at about 75%, while 2019 probabilities are a bit less robust, with an anticipated 2-3 hikes. However, that’s a lifetime away in the world of data-dependent Fed watching. Based on assessments of current conditions most closely tracked by the Fed as part of its dual mandate, all are showing a green light:
Economic Update 9-24-2018
Economic Update 9-17-2018
Economic Update 9-10-2018
Economic Update 9-04-2018
Economic Update 8-27-2018
LSA Connect 