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Model Update, Market Volatility & Portfolio Changes
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Weekly Economic Update
Economic Update 3-09-2020
- Economic data last week included slower ISM manufacturing, but stronger ISM non-manufacturing/services, construction spending and a positive employment report on Friday, which surpassed expectations.
- U.S. and foreign equity markets experienced another topsy-turvy week, ending with a net gain. Investors continued to react to new cases and spread of the coronavirus. Bonds fared well, due to the ongoing flight to safety as interest rates again reached new all-time lows. Commodities were highlighted by extremely weak crude oil prices, and strength in precious metals.
Posted in Economic News
Tagged Fed, Federal Reserve, fixed income, FOMC, GDP, Government, Home Sales, Inflation, interest rate, interest rates, Janet Yellen, Japan, Jobless Claims, LSA, MSCI Europe, oil prices, Portfolio, Q/E, Real Estate, Retail Sales, Russia, S&P 500, S&P500, unemployment rate, Update, Yahoo!
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Weekly Economic Update
Economic Update 3-02-2020
- While overshadowed by volatile financial markets last week, economic data included strong housing results and prices, decent increases in consumer confidence, as well as durable goods orders that declined less than expected.
- Equities in both U.S. and foreign markets experienced their worst week since the financial crisis, driven lower by uncertainty about the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Bonds fared well, though, coupled with treasury interest rates reaching new lows for the cycle. Commodities also suffered due to dampened prices for crude oil—affected by perceived lower demand.
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Weekly Economic Update
Economic Update 3-02-2020
- While overshadowed by volatile financial markets last week, economic data included strong housing results and prices, decent increases in consumer confidence, as well as durable goods orders that declined less than expected.
- Equities in both U.S. and foreign markets experienced their worst week since the financial crisis, driven lower by uncertainty about the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Bonds fared well, though, coupled with treasury interest rates reaching new lows for the cycle. Commodities also suffered due to dampened prices for crude oil—affected by perceived lower demand.
Posted in Economic News
Tagged bps, China, Commodities, CPI, Crude oil, crude oil prices, DJIA, ECB, Economic, economic data, economic growth, Economic Update, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Eurozone, Fed, Federal Reserve, fixed income, FOMC, GDP, Government, Home Sales, Inflation, interest rate, interest rates, Janet Yellen, Japan, Jobless Claims, LSA, MSCI Europe, oil prices, Portfolio, Q/E, Retail Sales, Russia, S&P500, unemployment rate, Update
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Weekly Economic Update
Economic Update 2-25-2020
- On a shortened holiday week, economic data included stronger regional manufacturing results, a rebound in the broader measure of leading economic indicators, and decent housing data.
- U.S. and foreign equity markets fell back last week as the economic impact of the coronavirus again negatively weighed on market sentiment. However, bonds fared well, as investors sought safety. Commodities were mixed, featuring stronger results for precious metals and the energy sector.
Posted in Economic News
Tagged bps, China, Commodities, CPI, Crude oil, crude oil prices, DJIA, ECB, Economic, economic data, economic growth, Economic Update, Employment, Europe, Eurozone, Fed, Federal Reserve, fixed income, FOMC, GDP, Government, Home Sales, Inflation, interest rate, Janet Yellen, Japan, Jobless Claims, LSA, MSCI Europe, oil prices, Portfolio, Q/E, Real Estate, Russia, S&P 500, S&P500, unemployment rate, Update, Yahoo!
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Weekly Economic Update
Economic Update 2-18-2020
- Economic data for the week included improvements in retail sales, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment; industrial production declined for the month, led by some idiosyncratic factors. Consumer and import price inflation remained tempered, in line with recent trends.
- U.S. equity markets gained on the week as progress in containment of the coronavirus appeared to raise hopes for mitigating economic damage from the contagion. Foreign stocks gained slightly in local terms, but were held back by a stronger dollar. Bonds were little changed, with credit outperforming governments. Commodities gained, especially in energy and industrial metals, which are most sensitive to economic activity.
Posted in Economic News
Tagged bps, China, Commodities, CPI, Crude oil, crude oil prices, DJIA, ECB, Economic, economic data, economic growth, Economic Update, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Eurozone, Fed, Federal Reserve, fixed income, FOMC, GDP, Government, Inflation, interest rate, interest rates, Janet Yellen, Japan, Jobless Claims, LSA, MSCI Europe, oil prices, Portfolio, Q/E, Real Estate, Retail Sales, Russia, S&P 500, S&P500, unemployment rate, Update
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Weekly Economic Update
Economic Update 2-10-2020
- Economic data for the week featured an unexpected rebound in manufacturing sentiment, continued strength in non-manufacturing/services sentiment, as well as an upside surprise for the employment situation report for January.
- Global equity markets recovered last week, with progress noted on virus containment as well as financial stimulus from the Chinese government. Bonds lost ground as investors moved back into risk assets, pushing interest rates higher. Commodities were mixed, with crude oil prices seeing continued pressure from demand concerns and high inventories.
Posted in Economic News
Tagged Crude oil, crude oil prices, DJIA, ECB, Economic, economic data, economic growth, Economic Update, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Eurozone, Fed, Federal Reserve, fixed income, FOMC, GDP, Home Sales, Inflation, interest rate, interest rates, Janet Yellen, Japan, Jobless Claims, LSA, oil prices, Portfolio, Q/E, Real Estate, Retail Sales, Russia, S&P 500, S&P500, unemployment rate, Update
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Weekly Economic Update
Economic Update 2-04-2020
- Economic news for the week included the Federal Reserve taking no action on interest rates, and GDP gaining nominally for the last quarter of 2019. Durable goods came in better than expected, tempered results were seen in housing and consumer confidence, while manufacturing weakened in the well-watched Chicago PMI survey.
- Equities around the world lost ground during the week as uncertainties surrounding the new coronavirus put a damper on early-year positive sentiment. In keeping, high-quality bonds gained due to the reversal of flows. Commodities also suffered due to the unknown, but assumed negative economic growth impact.
Posted in Economic News
Tagged 1st Quarter GDP, China, Commodities, coronavirus, CPI, Crude oil, crude oil prices, DJIA, ECB, Economic, economic data, economic growth, Economic Update, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Eurozone, Fed, Federal Reserve, fixed income, FOMC, GDP, Government, Home Sales, Inflation, interest rate, interest rates, Janet Yellen, Japan, Jobless Claims, LSA, MSCI Europe, oil prices, Portfolio, Q/E, Real Estate, Retail Sales, Russia, S&P 500, S&P500, unemployment rate, Update, Yahoo!
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FED NOTE
Fed Note:
The FOMC completed their January meeting, with no stated changes in monetary policy, and no dissents. The target fed funds rate remains at 1.50-1.75%.
The formal statement was little changed, noting low inflation and economic growth expanding at a ‘moderate’ pace, although household spending was downgraded from ‘strong’ to ‘moderate’ as well, in the only notable difference from December. While insignificant to monetary policy overall, the Fed did raise a unique rate it pays to banks for excess reserves kept at the Fed from 1.55% to 1.60%—more toward the ‘mid-range’ of the fed funds target. This relates to an ongoing desire to balance incentives for borrowing and lending in the short-term ‘repo’ markets, which has proven a little tricky in recent months.
As for the Fed’s key decision items, little has changed from the prior meeting. This is in line with the lack of policy adjustment today or even hints of future action. Continue reading
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Weekly Economic Update
Economic Update 1-27-2020
- In a lighter week for economic numbers, home prices and sales both increased, while the index of leading economic indicators showed a decline to end the year.
- Global equity markets all fell due to global concerns over the new outbreak of the coronavirus in China. Bonds, in typical fashion, fared well with interest rates ticking down across the treasury yield curve. Commodities also suffered along with fears of a global growth impact from the virus—especially affecting already-battered energy prices.
Posted in Economic News
Tagged bps, China, Commodities, CPI, Crude oil, crude oil prices, DJIA, ECB, Economic, economic data, economic growth, Economic Update, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Eurozone, Fed, Federal Reserve, fixed income, FOMC, GDP, Government, Home Sales, Inflation, interest rate, Janet Yellen, Japan, Jobless Claims, LSA, oil prices, Portfolio, Q/E, Real Estate, Retail Sales, Russia, S&P 500, S&P500, unemployment rate, Update, Yahoo!
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Weekly Economic Update
Economic Update 1-21-2020
- Economic news for the week included better results from several regional manufacturing indexes as well as stronger housing starts. On par with forecasts were tempered producer and consumer inflation readings, as were retail sales, while industrial production came in on the weaker side.
- U.S. and foreign equity markets gained, with U.S.-China trade progress and the improved economic data. Bonds were little changed, although foreign debt was affected by a rise in the dollar. Commodities declined due to currency effects and lower energy prices.
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged China, Commodities, CPI, Crude oil, crude oil prices, DJIA, ECB, Economic, economic data, economic growth, Emerging Markets, Employment, Europe, Eurozone, Fed, Federal Reserve, fixed income, FOMC, GDP, Government, Home Sales, Inflation, interest rate, interest rates, Janet Yellen, Japan, Jobless Claims, LSA, MSCI Europe, oil prices, Portfolio, Q/E, Real Estate, Retail Sales, Russia, S&P 500, S&P500, unemployment rate, Update, Yahoo!
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