LSA Connect

Economic Update 10-17-2023 

• Economic data for the week included producer price inflation decelerating further on a year-over-year basis, while consumer prices remained somewhat sticky. Consumer sentiment also fell back, with higher inflation expectations. 

• Equities rose in the U.S. but were little changed overall in foreign markets. Bonds fared positively, as interest rates came back down from highs as investors sought a bit of safety. Commodities rose due to higher prices for crude oil and gold, related to geopolitical concerns in Israel and the Middle East. 

Economic Update 10-11-2023 

• Economic data for the week included ISM manufacturing staying in contraction, but continuing to improve, while ISM services slowed a bit, but continued to expand at a rapid clip. The employment situation report surprised to the upside, as did job openings earlier in the week. 

• Global equities were mixed, with net gains in U.S. large cap, while small cap and international stocks declined. Bonds also fell back again due to interest rates inching higher. Commodities declined as crude oil prices pulled back sharply. 

Economic Update 10-04-2023 

• Economic data for the week included U.S. GDP for Q2 unchanged from prior editions, while expectations for Q3 remain far higher than trend. Durable goods orders rose a bit, although after-inflation results remained depressed. Housing data was mixed, with home prices remaining on an upward trend, while new home sales fell sharply. 

• Global equities fell back last week, as the ‘higher for longer’ interest rate message from central banks was a worldwide negative. Bonds fell back as well, due to the further rise in yields, with foreign bonds pressured downward by the stronger U.S. dollar. Commodities were mixed with oil up only slightly last week.

Economic Update 9-25-2023 

• Economic data for the week included the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged but kept language relatively hawkish. Housing data was negative, with a drop in existing home sales as well as starts and homebuilder sentiment, although building permits improved. The index of leading economic indicators remained in a negative trend. 

• Global stocks fell back last week, due to the hawkish tone of central bank commentary, as opposed to actual rate hikes done, as well as idiosyncratic economic stresses. Bonds fell back, directly due to the rise in longer-term yields. Commodities were mixed, with crude oil prices little changed for the week. 

Economic Update 9-18-2023 

• Economic data for the week included mixed producer and consumer inflation results, with headline numbers driven by higher energy costs. Retail sales, industrial production, and regional manufacturing results showed gains for the prior. 

• Equities ended with flattish returns in the U.S., underperforming foreign stocks, which saw gains. Bonds fell back along with higher interest rates across the yield curve. Commodities gained last week, led by continued supply concerns in crude oil. 

Economic Update 9-11-2023 

• On a shortened holiday week, economic data was positive, which included ISM services sentiment coming in stronger than expected, and jobless claims falling a bit. 

• Global equities fell back as interest rates rose in conjunction with the still-decent U.S. economic data. Bonds fell in line with slightly higher yields, and a stronger U.S. dollar held back foreign debt markets. Commodities were mixed, with weaker metals offset by a continued rise in the price of crude oil. 

Economic Update 9-05-2023 

• Economic data for the week included a revision downward for U.S. Q2 GDP, as well as improved but still negative ISM manufacturing. Housing results were generally positive, from the standpoint of home prices and pending sales. Labor market data was mixed, with continued signs of slowing, but remaining decent. 

• Global equities experienced gains, with U.S. stocks outperforming most foreign with benign economic, inflation, and interest rate news. Bonds rose along with a pullback in interest rates. Commodities were led higher by crude oil and industrial metals.

Economic Update 8-28-2023 

• Economic data for the week included a decline in durable goods orders, while housing data was mixed, with a drop in existing home sales offset by a rise in new home sales. 

• Equities rose globally as economic growth continued to stay non-negative, along with hopes for an eventual peak in interest rates. Bonds fared positively in the U.S. as yields fell back from prior-week highs. Commodities gained due to specific supply/demand dynamics and continued waning recession fears. 

Economic Update 8-21-2023 

• Economic releases for the week included the index of leading economic indicators continuing its long-running decline. However, retail sales and industrial production surpassed expectations on the upside. Housing data was mixed, as were several regional manufacturing surveys. 

• Stocks saw negative returns globally, with interest rates rising and concerns over the Chinese economy dominating sentiment. Bonds declined due to the direct impact of those rising yields. Commodities fell due to currency effects and demand concerns in oil and metals. 

Economic Update 8-14-2023 

• Economic data for the week included consumer price inflation coming in at a continued decelerated pace, as were producer prices to a slightly lesser degree. Jobless claims rose modestly, with no major recent change. 

• Equities were mixed to lower last week, as interest rates rose and summer trading volumes remained low. Bonds fell back as well, due to the duration impact of rates. Commodities were mixed, with oil prices inching up slightly in a continuation of tighter supply conditions. 

Economic Update 7-31-2023 

• Economic news for the week included the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates by another quarter percent, Q2 GDP growth that came in stronger than expected, as did durable goods orders and consumer sentiment. 

• Global equities gained for the week, with positive economic news and improved inflation readings. Bonds were generally negative, as interest rates ticked higher along with central bank hawkishness about potential future hikes. Commodities were mixed, with oil prices up 5%. 

U.S. stocks ended the week mixed to higher, with a bit uncertainty in direction following the Fed’s decision to raise rates, strong U.S. GDP growth, durable goods and consumer sentiment results that defy worries about a potential recession, as well as decent corporate earnings and falling PCE inflation. The S&P 500 has risen by 30% from a low point in October, now well above the closely-watched 50-day and 200-day moving averages. From a technical standpoint, this represents a bull market. However, other technical signals, such as near-term relative strength, point to a potentially overbought condition. This isn’t unusual, nor would be a short-term pullback at this point (just to keep expectations in check). 

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee raised the Fed funds rate today by 0.25% to a new range of 5.25-5.50%. The vote was unanimous. Starting from zero in March 2022, this 11th hike continued the quickest and strongest hiking pace since the early 1980s. The formal statement was minimally changed, with economic activity upgraded from ‘modest’ to ‘moderate.’ 

Today’s move was well-telegraphed, with Fed funds futures¹ market odds steadily rising from 80% to 99% in the past month. Though, with the recent deceleration in inflation, odds of another hike after today have fallen, in Dec. 2023, with just over a one-half chance of staying at 5.25-5.50% and one-third chance of another 0.25%. Next year remains a different story, with June 2024 showing 4.75-5.00% and December at 4.00-4.25%. While those rate assumptions are higher than a month ago, the large assumed decline in 2024 reflects strong Fed easing in response to nothing short of a recession, as well as continued downward inflation progress.